Statistics- Singapore’s Tourist Arrival A bridge between the East and the West

Singapore’s
Tourist Arrival

A
bridge between the East and the West for centuries, Singapore embraces
tradition and modernity. Colourful ethnic precincts amongst efficient business
centres, and serene gardens set against sleek skyscrapers, Singapore is a fascinating
destination for leisure and business travellers (MTI, 2015).

Over
the years, there has been remarkable transformation in Singapore’s tourism
landscape and there are various reported record growth in both tourism receipts
and visitor arrivals. Since 2004, Singapore has grown her tourism receipts by
almost 2.5 times while visitor arrivals also almost doubled (MTI, 2015).

A
common key performance indicator is the International Visitor Arrivals which
refer to travellers taking a trip to Singapore whose length of stay is less
than a year. This excludes:
·
All Malaysian citizens
arriving by land;
·
Returning Singapore
citizens, permanent residents and pass holders
·
Non-resident air and
sea crew (except for sea crew flying in to join a ship); and
·
Air transit and
transfer passengers.

Arrival
statistics are reported by country of residence based on information from Disembarkation/Embarkation
(D/E) Cards by the Immigration and Checkpoints Authority of Singapore (STB,
2015).

Using
the data in Tables 2.1, 2.2 and 2.3 below, produce forecasts of the Visitor
Arrivals in Singapore (Total, ASEAN and China) and prepare a report according
to the requirements listed.

Question
1
(a) Provide an understanding and background
discussion on the methodology of forecasting.
(8 marks)
(b) Determine the seasonality of the data
by conducting an in-depth seasonality analysis for Table 1, 2 and 3. For each quarter, indicate the
seasonal indexes, the deseasonalised time series and the trend line that will
fit the deseasonalised time series. Adjust the seasonal indexes, if necessary.
Provide justification on the appropriateness of seasonality analysis.
(21 marks)
(c) Understand and comment on possible
forecast errors and the cause of these errors.
(10 marks)
(d) Develop an overall conclusion of your
forecasting findings, policy observations and recommendations.
(8 marks)

Singapore’s
Tourist Arrival

A
bridge between the East and the West for centuries, Singapore embraces
tradition and modernity. Colourful ethnic precincts amongst efficient business
centres, and serene gardens set against sleek skyscrapers, Singapore is a fascinating
destination for leisure and business travellers (MTI, 2015).

Over
the years, there has been remarkable transformation in Singapore’s tourism
landscape and there are various reported record growth in both tourism receipts
and visitor arrivals. Since 2004, Singapore has grown her tourism receipts by
almost 2.5 times while visitor arrivals also almost doubled (MTI, 2015).

A
common key performance indicator is the International Visitor Arrivals which
refer to travellers taking a trip to Singapore whose length of stay is less
than a year. This excludes:
·
All Malaysian citizens
arriving by land;
·
Returning Singapore
citizens, permanent residents and pass holders
·
Non-resident air and
sea crew (except for sea crew flying in to join a ship); and
·
Air transit and
transfer passengers.

Arrival
statistics are reported by country of residence based on information from Disembarkation/Embarkation
(D/E) Cards by the Immigration and Checkpoints Authority of Singapore (STB,
2015).

Using
the data in Tables 2.1, 2.2 and 2.3 below, produce forecasts of the Visitor
Arrivals in Singapore (Total, ASEAN and China) and prepare a report according
to the requirements listed.

Question
1
(a) Provide an understanding and background
discussion on the methodology of forecasting.
(8 marks)
(b) Determine the seasonality of the data
by conducting an in-depth seasonality analysis for Table 1, 2 and 3. For each quarter, indicate the
seasonal indexes, the deseasonalised time series and the trend line that will
fit the deseasonalised time series. Adjust the seasonal indexes, if necessary.
Provide justification on the appropriateness of seasonality analysis.
(21 marks)
(c) Understand and comment on possible
forecast errors and the cause of these errors.
(10 marks)
(d) Develop an overall conclusion of your
forecasting findings, policy observations and recommendations.
(8 marks)

Singapore’s
Tourist Arrival

A
bridge between the East and the West for centuries, Singapore embraces
tradition and modernity. Colourful ethnic precincts amongst efficient business
centres, and serene gardens set against sleek skyscrapers, Singapore is a fascinating
destination for leisure and business travellers (MTI, 2015).

Over
the years, there has been remarkable transformation in Singapore’s tourism
landscape and there are various reported record growth in both tourism receipts
and visitor arrivals. Since 2004, Singapore has grown her tourism receipts by
almost 2.5 times while visitor arrivals also almost doubled (MTI, 2015).

A
common key performance indicator is the International Visitor Arrivals which
refer to travellers taking a trip to Singapore whose length of stay is less
than a year. This excludes:
·
All Malaysian citizens
arriving by land;
·
Returning Singapore
citizens, permanent residents and pass holders
·
Non-resident air and
sea crew (except for sea crew flying in to join a ship); and
·
Air transit and
transfer passengers.

Arrival
statistics are reported by country of residence based on information from Disembarkation/Embarkation
(D/E) Cards by the Immigration and Checkpoints Authority of Singapore (STB,
2015).

Using
the data in Tables 2.1, 2.2 and 2.3 below, produce forecasts of the Visitor
Arrivals in Singapore (Total, ASEAN and China) and prepare a report according
to the requirements listed.

Question
1
(a) Provide an understanding and background
discussion on the methodology of forecasting.
(8 marks)
(b) Determine the seasonality of the data
by conducting an in-depth seasonality analysis for Table 1, 2 and 3. For each quarter, indicate the
seasonal indexes, the deseasonalised time series and the trend line that will
fit the deseasonalised time series. Adjust the seasonal indexes, if necessary.
Provide justification on the appropriateness of seasonality analysis.
(21 marks)
(c) Understand and comment on possible
forecast errors and the cause of these errors.
(10 marks)
(d) Develop an overall conclusion of your
forecasting findings, policy observations and recommendations.
(8 marks)

Singapore’s
Tourist Arrival


A
bridge between the East and the West for centuries, Singapore embraces
tradition and modernity. Colourful ethnic precincts amongst efficient business
centres, and serene gardens set against sleek skyscrapers, Singapore is a fascinating
destination for leisure and business travellers (MTI, 2015).





Over
the years, there has been remarkable transformation in Singapore’s tourism
landscape and there are various reported record growth in both tourism receipts
and visitor arrivals. Since 2004, Singapore has grown her tourism receipts by
almost 2.5 times while visitor arrivals also almost doubled (MTI, 2015).





A
common key performance indicator is the International Visitor Arrivals which
refer to travellers taking a trip to Singapore whose length of stay is less
than a year. This excludes:
·
All Malaysian citizens
arriving by land;
·
Returning Singapore
citizens, permanent residents and pass holders
·
Non-resident air and
sea crew (except for sea crew flying in to join a ship); and
·
Air transit and
transfer passengers.
















Arrival
statistics are reported by country of residence based on information from Disembarkation/Embarkation
(D/E) Cards by the Immigration and Checkpoints Authority of Singapore (STB,
2015).




Using
the data in Tables 2.1, 2.2 and 2.3 below, produce forecasts of the Visitor
Arrivals in Singapore (Total, ASEAN and China) and prepare a report according
to the requirements listed.




Question
1
(a) Provide an understanding and background
discussion on the methodology of forecasting.
(8 marks)
(b) Determine the seasonality of the data
by conducting an in-depth seasonality analysis for Table 1, 2 and 3. For each quarter, indicate the
seasonal indexes, the deseasonalised time series and the trend line that will
fit the deseasonalised time series. Adjust the seasonal indexes, if necessary.
Provide justification on the appropriateness of seasonality analysis.
(21 marks)
(c) Understand and comment on possible
forecast errors and the cause of these errors.
(10 marks)
(d) Develop an overall conclusion of your
forecasting findings, policy observations and recommendations.
(8 marks)

















Answers

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